Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Greed vs Fear

Greg Manikew writes:
Warren Buffett has said, "you should get greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy." If he is right, then this is the time to get greedy. There is no doubt that most everyone else is fearful.

That is a pretty good rule of thumb. However, the rule breaks down when the fear is rational. For example, who made out better in 1929, the people who operated out of fear and got out of the stock market or the people who got into the market because people's fear made it a ripe time to get into the market?