Saturday, September 6, 2008

Political Futures Market

The Iowa Electronic Markets have offered real-money trading in political futures since the Bush-Dukakis campaign of 1988. Over the past 20 years, the IEM has been at least as accurate as political polls when it comes to picking the winners.

The problem with Political Future Markets is that people are aware that they have had predictive value in the past. Consequently, people may be placing money on Obama simply because that is where the "smart" money is currently. Hence, Political Future Markets may not be as valuable in the future at predicting who will win.