Of Interest

Going out of Business

2008-10-18T12:44:00.002-04:00

I had no idea how much ad revenues blogging would be able to generate, or how many readers I would have to attract to be able to make blogging profitable. My plan was to blog for a month to do something I enjoy, and learn about how many readers I would need to be able to make blogging profitable. A month or two later, and I have learned that I will need several thousand daily readers to be able to make this profitable. I appreciate everyone who took time to read my blog, but several thousand readers would require an exponential growth in my readership. Additionally, I am certain that we are headed for a very severe economic downturn, which will reduce the amount of money that advertisers are willing to spend. With all of this taken into consideration, I have determined to pursue new paths to make my fortune.

Thank you for taking the time to read my blog. I hope I was able to provide some entertainment.

A Palin Hating Conservative

2008-10-15T18:27:00.002-04:00

Heather Mac Donald versus Laura Ingraham

It is sad. Really really sad that a conservative would believe that losing this election could have a long term benefit to conservatism. Anyone who believes that is either hopelessly naive to what the next 2 years may hold, or cares more about ideology than country. The reason that conservatives must win this election is that the threat of a depression is real, and conservatives have the right ideology to pull America through it as painlessly as possible. Liberals, on the other hand in an attempt to spread the wealth, will spread the poverty instead.

Many of these Sarah Palin hating conservatives are well off rich fools who are essentially insulated from the hard times that they are willing to consign many Americans to. And, they are doing it to advance liberal policy positions.

Economic Theory

2008-10-15T17:44:00.002-04:00

Megan McCardle is trying to spark an interesting discussion on economic theory in light of the financial crisis. I added my 2 cents to the comments, which are:

If followed, the right theory will never come in contact with the enemy, because it will tell policy makers how to avoid such contact. Milton Friedman's theory on monetary policy took hold in the 80's and have been the basis of world monetary policy ever since. No one is discarding Milton Friedman's monetary policy theories because of this crisis. In fact, all policy makers are building their bailout policies in accordance with that theory because of its strength. So, if his theories are so sound, why did the theory come in contact with the enemy? Because his theories on government fiscal policy have been ignored for 70+ years, and to be fair his theories on government fiscal policies while strong are more ideological rather than based upon a theoretical framework. Economists need to provide a strong theoretical framework which shows that Milton Friedman's views on government fiscal policy are theoretically just as strong as his theories on monetary policy.

Making everybody happy

2008-10-15T15:27:00.005-04:00

Ilya Somin at the Volokh Conspiracy has an interesting article on Quebec separatism and Conservatives in Canada:

Canadian Conservatives prefer relatively pro-market policies. Quebec is the most statist province in the country and its political influence drives Canada's economic policies well to the left of where they would be in a separate anglophone Canada. Canadian Conservatives hate paying for federal government subsidies to Quebec (Quebec is a major net recipient of transfer payments from the federal government). Obviously, there would be no such subsidies if Quebec were an independent nation. In the long run, secession might even lead to relatively more market-oriented policies within Quebec itself, since an independent Quebec government could no longer rely on Ottawa transfer payments to finance its statism. Finally, Quebec secession would be a major political boon for the Conservative Party. In the recent election, the Conservatives won 133 of 233 parliament seats in the anglophone provinces, but only 10 of 75 in Quebec. The Tories won't necessarily do this well in the "rest of Canada" every time; but their odds of getting a majority would be greatly improved if Quebec were to secede.

One of the readers at the Volokh conspiracy answers Ilya's question by saying:

Being a "federalist" party in the Canadian sense (that is, anti-secessionist) is the sine qua non for support in English Canada. There might be some number of western voters who would cheer Quebec's departure and be happy that the ideological median in their new country had moved a long way right. But the Conservatives would sacrifice something close to all their votes in Ontario (the largest province)-- many of whom have no identity-commitment to being Conservative but have a massive investment in the idea of Canada.... Ontario is far from solidly conservative or culturally conservative, and it would electorally cut off at the knees any party that abandoned federalism. Whatever Conservative leaders might wish in their hearts, it's a political non-starter.

How about America, Canada, Conservatives and Liberals come together and give everybody a little of what they want? Quebec gets its own nation. Liberals get a nation made up of the following Canadian provinces and American states: Ontario, Newfoundland and Labradour, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Washington, DC, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, California, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii. Conservative get a nation made up of the following Canadian provinces and American states: Alaska, Yukon Territories, Northwest Territories, Nunavet, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky. The following American states would go with whatever nation they prefer to join: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri.

I know it is not going to happen, but it would be a solution that should leave everybody better off.

Iran versus Israel

2008-10-15T14:24:00.002-04:00

If there is any truth to the following (via Ace of Spade and Doug Ross), I do not see how a catastrophic war between Israel and Iran is avoidable. Additionally, that war will probably include America and may also include Jordan, Lebanon and Syria aligned with Israel against Iran (such an attack as described in the link would almost certainly kill quite a few Jordanians, Lebanese and Syrians).

The world desperately needs the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the Iranian regime. It also might be in the Iranian people's interest to replace the Iranian regime. As the Iranian regime seems to show no regard for the fact that such an attack might be greeted with a massive retaliation that endangers the lives of many innocent Iranian civilians.

The benefits of being married to the right person.

2008-10-15T14:04:00.002-04:00

Man, I beat Dr Helen by two day with a reference to John Galt, but Dr Helen gets the instalanche. Oh well, I guess being the instawife has its privileges. Then again, maybe it was my own incompetent linkage skills that prevented the post from being a worthy read.

Want to be President?

2008-10-15T12:57:00.004-04:00

In the USA Today, Susan Page wonders:

Why exactly would anybody want this job?
The candidate who wins the White House on Nov. 4 will face the most calamitous economy for any new president since Franklin Roosevelt took over amid the Depression in 1933. He'll assume command of the biggest wartime deployment of U.S. troops since Richard Nixon was sworn in during the Vietnam War in 1969.

The bigger the obstacles that you have to overcome; the greater the rewards are when you succeed. Additionally, America faces a critical choice in this election. Choose one way, and America may very well choose poverty, choose another way and America may very well choose prosperity. Both parties believe that their way brings prosperity, while the other party's way brings poverty. Hence, both parties should feel that winning this election is critical. I hope America chooses wisely.

Bad Management

2008-10-15T12:12:00.002-04:00

Some have argued that the free market is to blame for the financial crisis because greedy corporate managers have acted irresponsibly, and taken on risk that exposed their companies to huge losses. My response is that is all true except for the part where the blame is placed on the free market. Our government and not the free market is responsible for fostering the climate where these corporate managers could act irresponsibly without the fear of being punished by the free market. Our government did this by insulating corporate managers from the fear that if they acted irresponsibly their company would be taken over and they would be fired for their irresponsible incompetence:

If managers are misusing a corporation’s assets, there will be profit opportunities for the alert investor who figures it out, buys up a controlling share of stock, and replaces the managers with better ones. This is a hostile takeover....
The takeover is a key tool in what Henry Manne, the great economist and former dean of the George Mason University Law School, long ago dubbed the market for corporate control....
...the federal and state governments have done all they could to prevent corporate takeovers. In 1968 the federal government enacted a law forcing anyone who acquires a specified amount of a corporation’s shares (today it’s 5 percent) to disclose his intentions to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Obviously, if someone announces that he intends a takeover, the stock price will rise, wiping out the profit in the takeover. That was the point.
...managers who feared losing their jobs lobbied Congress and the president. It was special-interest, protectionist legislation all the way....
In the 1980s the states and state courts enacted even harsher anti-takeover measures. The result? “The number of hostile tender offers dropped precipitously and with it the most effective device for policing top managers of large, publicly held companies,” Manne writes.

The article that I linked to was written in 2002. I believe that further corporate managers protection laws were enacted after that article was written in 2002.

Money Supply Contraction

2008-10-15T12:04:00.002-04:00

In the Wall Street Journal, Andy Kessler writes:

...after the 1929 market crash and subsequent bank runs, 10,000 or roughly 40% of banks failed, $2 billion in deposits were wiped out and 30% of the money supply disappeared. So did a similar percentage of GDP. Today, bank deposits are mostly safe, but with $1 trillion in bank and Wall Street writedowns taken or soon to be taken on bad real estate securities, some multiple of that in money supply will vanish with the stroke of an accountant's pen. Restarting bank lending is the only way to top it back up.

The contraction in the money supply is what will trigger the depression. It must be avoided. Desperate times call for desperate meaures.

Bottled Tap Water

2008-10-15T11:40:00.003-04:00

In case you are buying bottled water:

"In some cases, it appears bottled water is no less polluted than tap water and, at 1,900 times the cost, consumers should expect better," said Jane Houlihan, an environmental engineer who co-authored the study.

In my experience, bottled water always taste better than tap water. Maybe it is a placebo effect.

Le-a

2008-10-14T23:47:00.002-04:00

That is awesome! I think the mom has a right to be upset. The pronunciation of the child's name is clearly blatantly obvious.

Game Theory and Counter Intuitive Thinking

2008-10-14T23:22:00.001-04:00

via Web Junk

Office Prank

2008-10-14T22:54:00.001-04:00

A funny office prank that doesn't cost any money, and shouldn't get you into too much trouble.

Vista and the Mojave experiment

2008-10-14T21:17:00.003-04:00

The Mojave Experiment is a slap in the face to Windows Vista users. Windows Vista has some real problems. Some days, I lose more than an hour of productivity due to the inefficiencies of Windows Vista. I wish rather than spending money to conduct a bogus experiment to convince people that Vista is not as bad as they have heard, that Microsoft would spend money to make Windows Vista better.

A good start, but not enough

2008-10-14T20:35:00.003-04:00

This is a good start, but John McCain has got to do more to convince the undecided voters that the economy will do better under his presidency than Obama's:

Sen. John McCain today proposed $52 billion in tax breaks aimed at reducing the impact of stock market losses on the nation's seniors, providing relief to the unemployed and encouraging savings.

Furthermore, this probably will not win him any votes, but it is good to see that realizes that the government should not have any financial interest in the banks any longer than is necessary.

McCain's made his tax cut proposals as President Bush announced an historic $250 billion plan to have the federal government inject money into the economy by directly investing in private banks.
McCain did not directly comment on the president's announcement. But he warned that as president he would require that government investment end once the private banks and institutions are restructured and healthy.

I could be wrong, but I doubt that it is a view that is shared by Obama.

John Maynard Keynes

2008-10-14T19:29:00.003-04:00

Robert Skidelsky, a John Maynard Keynes biographer, writes in the Washington Post:

So mainstream theory has no explanation of why things have gone so horribly wrong. To understand how markets can generate their own hurricanes we need to return to John Maynard Keynes.

I wonder if this author is an economist, because I do not think he knows what he is talking about. For example, take the following passage:

...Keynes's insights should not be tossed away as old garbage. At the very least we can say that we have no warrant for basing economics on assumptions that are so often discredited by events.

The reason that "Keynes's insights" regarding monetary policy were "tossed away like old garbage" was because they were "discredited by events".

Furthermore, even though its true that economist have forsaken Keynesian monetary policy, America has had an unbroken string of 70+ years of Keynesian fiscal policy. In fact, small parts of the Keynesian fiscal policy might have been the cause of this financial crisis. Additionally, regardless of whether it was the cause, Keynesian fiscal policy has robbed America of the flexibility it needs to address this problem.

Hopefully, this crisis will be the final nail in the coffin of Keynesian fiscal policy. However, that is unlikely. Instead, America is likely to see a rapid expansion of Keynesian fiscal policy.

Update: Apparently, he is an economist, and a very accomplished one at that. Which makes his defense of Keynes bizarre.

Sarah Palin Hatred

2008-10-14T19:07:00.003-04:00

Have you noticed that the Sarah Palin is not qualified to be VP story rarely gets mentioned anymore? And, when it is mentioned it is only brought up by conservatives. It used to irritate me when a liberal would invariably say that liberals are smarter than conservatives. The next time I hear that, I am going to retort "I do not believe that is true, but I will acknowledge that liberals are smarter than Christopher Buckley, Kathleen Parker, David Frum and David Brooks".

Rich Lowry says Christopher Buckley is not only a fool but a liar as well (or at least that is what I take from his comments).

eBay versus Amazon

2008-10-14T18:04:00.004-04:00

A report on eBay versus Amazon:

Just three years ago, eBay had 30 percent more traffic than Amazon. Today, its total of 84.5 million active users is barely ahead of the 81 million active customer accounts that Amazon reported in June.
Amazon has exceeded eBay in other measures as well. EBay's market capitalization was three times Amazon's in 2005, back when Wall Street loved the fact that it carried no inventory and generated huge profits. This year, eBay's stock has lost over half its value and, in July, Amazon's valuation surpassed eBay's for the first time.

I used to sell on eBay, and eBay's problems do not stem from Amazon. eBay's problems are all of their own making. eBay is monopolistic bureaucratic corporation that has an incompetent understanding of their own business model. Here are some quotes from the CEO of eBay which displays the arrogant general lack of understanding of who their customers are:

In a series of interviews, Donahoe acknowledged that eBay, based in San Jose, Calif., didn't adapt fast enough to shifting e-commerce winds. He now embraces a turnaround mind-set" and is refocusing its Web marketplace toward shoppers who don't want to waste time in online auctions.
"There are times when I wish we can close this store and just open a new store, but we can't," he said. "We need to make bolder, more aggressive changes to the eBay ecosystem even if they are unpopular."

eBay's business model is built completely around third party vendors selling products on eBay. In essence, eBay's customers are the people who are selling the products on eBay. The shoppers on eBay are not eBay's customers, instead they are the customers of the third party vendors. John Donahoe's quotes above makes it clear that eBay is unaware of this and treats the shoppers as if they are eBay's customers, and treats the sellers as if they are an unwanted nuisance. Through a combination of arrogance and ignorance, eBay is driving off their seller/customers in the hopes of attracting more shoppers. Well, as eBay drives off its customers, what exactly are those shoppers going to buy?

eBay should be catering to its customers (i.e, the sellers), and attempting to attract more sellers if it wants to grow its business. Now part of attracting more sellers will involve attracting more shoppers and increasing the rate of sales conversion. However, attracting more shoppers should not be done at the expense of making changes that are "unpopular" in the "eBay [seller] ecosystem".

Update: Lest anyone think I am disgruntled former eBay seller who is merely upset that eBay was trying to make it harder on the bad sellers, you are more than welcome to check out my ratings. I think that although I was not perfect, my ratings do show that I was one of the sellers that eBay should have definitely wanted to retain and not drive off.

Sarah on ACORN

2008-10-14T17:44:00.003-04:00

Good for Sarah:

Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin suggested Tuesday that Barack Obama shares responsibility for recent reports of voter fraud conducted by the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now.

Republicans need to learn that if they want the press to fairly cover some issues they have to force them to do it by addressing those issues themselves.

Has Obama already been corrupted?

2008-10-14T14:33:00.005-04:00

David Brooks describes the incident that led him to develop his man crush on Obama:

I was interviewing Obama a couple years ago, and I'm getting nowhere with the interview, it's late in the night, he's on the phone, walking off the Senate floor, he's cranky. Out of the blue I say, 'Ever read a guy named Reinhold Niebuhr?' And he says, 'Yeah.' So i say, 'What did Niebuhr mean to you?' For the next 20 minutes, he gave me a perfect description of Reinhold Niebuhr's thought, which is a very subtle thought process based on the idea that you have to use power while it corrupts you.

A first I thought it sounded good. But, then the following insight dawned on me, Obama's response is an implicit acknowledgement that he has been studying how to use power to achieve his "noble" ends (i.e., liberal policies) before he gets corrupted and uses the powers available to him to commit "ignoble" acts (i.e., oppressing his opponents, stuffing ballot boxes, ignoring laws, etc). Considering that it appears that Obama has already been corrupted by so little actual power, shouldn't America dread giving this man the real power that comes with being President?

Update: Stephen Green of Vodka Pundit has a post where he wonders about whether Obama will suppress free speech rights on the internet via the Fairness Doctrine.

Obama's Cult of Personality

2008-10-14T12:25:00.003-04:00

Wikipedia says:

A cult of personality... arises when a country's leader uses mass media to create a heroic public image through unquestioning flattery and praise. Cults of personality are often found in dictatorships but can be found in some democracies.

and

Generally, personality cults are most common in regimes with totalitarian systems of government, that seek to radically alter or transform society according to evolutionary new ideas. Often, a single leader becomes associated with this revolutionary transformation, and comes to be treated as a benevolent "guide" for the nation, without whom the transformation to a better future cannot occur.

Obama's Cult of Personality:
Textbooks to indoctrinate 8th graders.

Obama, Iraq and the economy.

2008-10-14T11:24:00.002-04:00

Mikey Kaus wonders:

One of McCain's problems is that voters aren't paying much attention to Iraq--because it looks from our distant vantage point like the war is finally on a glide path to an honorable U.S. drawdown of troops. How much damage could Obama do?

To answer his question, in Iraq, very little. In the American economy, a tremendous amount, unfortunately.

Fred Barnes' Crystal Ball

2008-10-14T11:02:00.002-04:00

Fred Barnes has seen the future, and it is not pretty:

...the worst case scenario is now a distinct possibility: a Democrat in the White House, a Democratic Senate with a filibuster-proof majority, and a Democratic House with a bolstered majority.
If this scenario unfolds, Washington would become a solidly liberal town
again for the first time in decades. And the prospects of passing the liberal
agenda--nearly all of it--would be bright. Enacting major parts of it would be
even brighter.
...permit organized labor to unionize the private sector without winning a
certification election by secret ballot....
...Democrats might go after.... right-to-work laws....
...killing conservative talk radio--[via] the so-called fairness doctrine--would stand an excellent chance of becoming law....
...Obama would nominate liberals to fill Supreme Court vacancies....
...free trade agreements would become a thing of the past...
...[Obama's] described [his health care plan] as step or two away from a single payer, government-run health system like Canada's....
...Obama has called for increasing the tax rate on capital gains, dividends, and the income of top earners, and raising the cap on payroll taxes. But tax hikes would worsen, not stimulate, a weak economy....
...cap and trade.... would drive up the cost of energy, another downer for the economy....
...a quick troop exit from Iraq and presidential-level talks with anti-American
dictators.

Unfortunately, my crystal ball does not look any better than Fred Barnes.

Better late than never

2008-10-14T10:47:00.005-04:00

David Brooks may be getting over his man crush on Obama just in time to help fight the ideological battle against encroaching socialism:

...Democrats will probably be running the government.... What we’re going to see, in short, is the Gingrich revolution in reverse and on steroids. There will be a big increase in spending and deficits. In normal times, moderates could have restrained the zeal on the left. In an economic crisis, not a chance. The over-reach is coming. The backlash is next.

I just hope that it is not too late.

David Frum's obsession with Sarah Palin

2008-10-13T17:53:00.003-04:00

David Frum is tired of the abuse he is receiving for denigrating Sarah Palin:

As one of my correspondents wrote this very morning: 'PLEASE KEEP YOUR REMARKS TO YOURSELF! Nobody but Democrats wants to hear them.' Well he may have a point. Perhaps it is our job at NRO is tell our readers only what they want to hear, without much regard to whether it is true.

Why is it that the some of the most "intelligent" conservatives (David Frum, Christopher Buckley, David Brooks, etc.) are so blind to how detrimental their obsessive Sarah Palin hatred is to the conservative cause? Readers of the NRO are looking for articles that advance the cause of conservatism. They do not read the NRO for articles that are detrimental to conservatism (numerous other outlets exist to provide those articles). If David Frum can not write articles that advance the cause of conservatism, and if he can not understand how pivotal this election is to the future of American conservatism and how detrimental it is to that cause to create doubts about the wisdom of electing the presumptive leader of the conservative cause, maybe he should not be writing for the NRO.

Fear and Hysteria can be rational

2008-10-13T15:30:00.003-04:00

I have seen numerous articles (here, here, etc.) bemoaning the perceived fear and hysteria in the American people. In defense of the American people, their actions have been a rational response to the known facts. The known facts are:

American wealth has been lost.
Additional wealth remains at risk.
Through taxes, laws and regulations the government can affect the value of wealth.
America is in the middle of an election.
It seems probable that the Democratic Party will come out of the election with unchecked political control.
The Democratic party believes that economic restrictive laws and regulations, and some high taxes benefit society.
Taxes, laws and regulations that the Democratic party prefer reduce the value of wealth.
The Republican party believes in cutting taxes, and easing the economic burden of restrictive laws and regulations.
Cutting taxes, and easing the economic burden of restrictive laws and regulations increase the value of wealth.
Just because something is probable does not mean that it is a foregone conclusion.
People respond to their own self interest.

All of these facts create a large incentive for those who do not want to see anymore American wealth destroyed to become very vocal in their attempt to educate others about the cost of the election so that they might feel it is in their self interest to vote Republican rather than Democratic. Additionally, those who are selling or refusing to buy assets are doing so not out of fear or hysteria, but in a rational attempt to protect as much of their wealth as they can.

More wealth destruction from Obama

2008-10-13T15:11:00.004-04:00

The AP reports:

Democratic Barack Obama on Monday... propos[ed] a 90-day moratorium on home foreclosures at some banks....

If enacted, this policy would make it harder and more costly for banks to foreclose on non paying home owners. By increasing the cost of foreclosure, the policy would reduce the value of the asset. The reduction in the value of the asset would show up as a net loss of wealth for the bank and society as a whole. The intrinsic destruction of wealth is the root cause of America's (and the world's) current financial crisis.

Obama has noble goals, but he can not see that how he would achieve these goals could worsen the root causes of the current financial crisis. The American people need to ask themselves, do they want to help non paying home owners stay in their home, or do they want to stop the cycle of wealth destruction that is leading America to the precipice of economic ruin. Obama and Democrats through noble goals and economic ignorance may very well push America over the edge.

Thank you John McCain

2008-10-13T15:01:00.003-04:00

Jake Tapper reports:

On Saturday, advisers to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., told the Politico's Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin that McCain was "considering additional economic measures aimed directly at the middle class that are likely to be rolled out this week...
Late Sunday, McCain decided no new economic proposals would be forthcoming after all.

John McCain, my friend, thank you for getting my hopes up that you were actually going to attempt to explain to the American people why conservative policies are better than liberal policies for the economy.

Spread the Wealth

2008-10-13T14:36:00.004-04:00

Obama is going to spread the wealth. Oh joy indeed. Happy days are here.

It sounds good in practice, but generally, when people try to spread the wealth, they spread poverty instead.

Someone should tell Obama that American wealth is currently in the process of being destroyed, and more is at risk of being destroyed. Furthermore, the mere suggestion that the government may take wealth increases the risk to holding assets which might be confiscated. The increased risk devalues those assets. In essence, wealth is destroyed simply by increasing the expectation that the risk to holding those assets has increased.

In this case, the asset in question is expected future income. Obama is making it clear that he intends to make it less profitable for the wealthy to engage in the work necessary to produce that future income. This decreases their incentive to engage in this work. It also decreases the incentive for the wealthy to consume today based upon the reduced income they expect to generate in the future.

Obama is already making America poorer. I am betting it will only get worse.

Populism and Conservatism

2008-10-13T14:05:00.004-04:00

Gregory Rodriguez writes:

...[Sarah Palin's] take-no-prisoners populism is inherently radical; it's at odds not only with McCain's "I'm safe, he's an unknown" strategy but with the very things that conservatism claims to be about: stability, order and tradition.

That is nonsense. American stability has been destroyed by 70 plus years of corrupting government influences in the economy that resulted in the current financial crisis. The lack of stability may get worse not better. It will almost certainly get worse if Democrats gain unchecked political control and increase rather than decrease the corrupting influences of the government on the economy. Conservatives have never believed in an order and a tradition of government control over the economy.

Hence, Sarah Palin's "populism" is in line with what conservatives have been advocating for 70 plus years. The only difference is that the financial crisis has increased the urgency with which conservatives must act to save the wealth and prosperity of America.

How low can you go

2008-10-13T13:57:00.002-04:00

Charles Gasparino makes the point that the McCain campaign, Republicans and all conservatives should be making:

The country is headed for recession; the only question is: Just how low can the markets and economy go?
It could be a lot lower - it all depends on the policies of the next president.
And, as it looks increasingly likely that Obama will be that man, the markets are casting a vote of "no confidence."

I guess we should laugh then

2008-10-13T13:49:00.002-04:00

History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.
- Karl Marx

That is a good question

2008-10-13T11:28:00.005-04:00

Andrew Malcolm blogging at the LA Times wants to know:

Does urging political restraint apply to McCain and Obama or just the Republicans?

That is a good question. Rather than posing this question to his readers who can do nothing about the press' behavior, I wonder if he has ever considered posing the question to his bosses at the LA Times.

via Glenn Reynolds

Shine by Bond

2008-10-13T01:56:00.000-04:00

Just quit already

2008-10-13T00:41:00.003-04:00

If there is any truth to this:

Mark Salter, McCain’s long-serving chief of staff, is understood to have told campaign insiders that he would prefer his boss, a former Vietnam prisoner of war, to suffer an “honourable defeat” rather than conduct a campaign that would be out of character – and likely to lose him the election.

I wish John McCain would step aside and let Sarah Palin finish the race. The stakes are too high, and conservatives and Republicans deserve a candidate who will fight for victory till the last vote is counted. When this race is over, should John McCain lose, he can easily go back to the Senate and continue to receive his six figure income. Most Americans, on the other hand, may very well see their net worth severely diminished by the burden of the economic policies that the Democrats most likely will enact.

America Wake Up!

2008-10-13T00:25:00.003-04:00

McCain is proposing economic policies that will help you preserve the value of your wealth. Obama is proposing economic policies that will hasten the destruction of your wealth.

Enquiring minds want to know

2008-10-12T23:43:00.003-04:00

The rumor on the internet is that Ben Smith has a good story that he is sitting on so as to not hurt Obama. Ben Smith addresses this accusation by saying:

...while the blogosphere sometimes reports by starting with a tip or a theory (Obama didn't write his own book! Palin didn't bear her own child!) and testing it by making it public, I'm old-fashioned enough not to print what I can't confirm.

That is probably a pretty fair reaction for a reporter, but in defense of the blogosphere:

The Palin did not bear her own child rumor was shot down within days of appearing (by members of the blogosphere).
The Obama didn't write his own book! rumor, as far as I am aware, has not been shot down, but what harm would there be for a reporter to say "Hey Obama, some people claim that Bill Ayers was the ghost writer for your book. Any Comments?".

Michelle Obama and the Whitey tape

2008-10-12T23:04:00.006-04:00

Have you heard the rumor about Michelle Obama and the Whitey tape? Well, if you want an update, Joseph Cannon has it for you.

He provides some clues to the source:

The name of the source is one that you would surely recognize, since he commands respect throughout the mainstream media, not just in blog-world. He is a famous investigator. For that reason -- and for another reason which will soon become clear to you -- I will here call him "Sherlock Holmes."
(Consider that a clue.)
I greatly admire Sherlock's previous work. Most of it, at least. You probably do as well. However, he has been fooled in the past. His most infamous slip-up concerned a story about a person I will here call MM. Fake documents were involved in that instance.
(Consider that another clue.)

My guess on the source is that it is Seymour Hersh (Sherlock Holmes=SH=Seymour Hersh, Marilyn Monroe=MM):

Hersh thought he had happened upon a previously buried treasure-trove of documents proving all kinds of previously unsubstantiated allegations. Newsweek reported that a series of signed agreements dated between March 1960 and Jan. 1962 allegedly proved that Kennedy paid Marilyn Monroe more than $1 million for her silence -- not just about her long-rumored sexual affair with John Kennedy, but about JFK's purported relationship with mobster Sam Giancana and other "underworld figures."

If it is Hersh, I personally do not consider him that reliable.

Update: As important as it I think it is that Republicans win this election, I do not want to win it because Michelle Obama turns out to be a "racist POS". I want to win this election because the American people come to realize that Republican ideas are much better for the future of America.

A warning

2008-10-12T22:05:00.002-04:00

Taxing the rich, while politically popular, is not very wise. It has adverse economic effects. In normal times, those effects are minor, and it would be wise of Republicans to spend their political capital trying to rid the economy of other laws and regulations that hamper the economy more than high tax rates on the wealthy. However, these are not normal times. Potentially, the most devastating thing the Democrats could do if they get unchecked power is to excessively raise taxes on the wealthy.

The wealthy may may consider the new taxes. Next, they might consider the financial condition of the United States. And then, they might consider the burden of additional taxes they will be expected to bear in the future. And then, they might consider that they have to wealth necessary to migrate. After all this careful consideration, they might decide that the financially wise thing to do is emigrate. If they do it in large numbers, it would be economically devastating to America.

Unsophisticated Angry Morons who happen to be Republicans

2008-10-12T21:23:00.005-04:00

Ace of Spades is upset with some Republicans:

Some Republicans are... unsophisticated angry morons who shout things like "Terrorist" about Obama when McCain is speaking, thus putting him on the extreme defensive....
They substantially vindicate every stereotype the left and MSM has about us, and make the rest of us not only look bad, but make us squeamish from even being political associates. And they lose us precious votes.
And yet these screamers and tantrum-throwers really think they're the ones helping the team. These malformed, brain-damaged shut-in angry monsters think they've got the right message to carry to the non-deformed, non-retarded demographics.
...
99% of readers and commenters are great. It's the 1% of brain-damaged, ignorant mutants that always causes all the embarrassment.... And at campaign rallies.

I agree with Ace of Spades for the most part. However, this story was largely a myth of hyperbole concocted by the Obama campaign. The propagandist in the Media then willingly spread the hyperbole for the benefit of the Obama campaign. And, they did so without ethically showing the lunacy of the left. To me, the story should be how unreliable the media is. The mainstream media is willingly lying to the American people on a scale never before seen. Are the American people aware of how deceitful the press is?

The fringe 1% is regrettable. However, conservatives and Republicans should not destroy themselves over the regrettable actions of a few. Instead, conservatives and Republicans should rally together, expose the lies of the media, and inform the American people, yes we are human and imperfect, and we can be passionate about our beliefs. However, in our passion, conservatives and Republicans are fighting to make America better and not bring it down.

I understand that Ace's rage against the 1% has more to do with a bad experience with one of his own commenter's. But, times are dire, and it is gonna take a miracle. Ace's intentions are good, but now is not the time for conservatives to give off the appearance that we are eating our own.

Obama as President

2008-10-12T21:10:00.003-04:00

Paul Mirengoff gives six reasons that Obama will govern from the far left. I would add a seventh, which is no matter how he governs the media will call him a moderate post partisan politician, so he will have the cover to govern how ever feels like it.

Thank you

2008-10-12T16:58:00.002-04:00

From my page impressions, I can tell I have a few readers. At least 50 a day. Other than my brother and a few other people, I am not sure who my readers are, but I want to thank you for taking the time to read my blog. I can be opinionated, but I try to be respectful of other people's point of view. I will try my best to provide interesting and entertaining things to read and view and respectful commentary when I have any. And as I do that, I want to thank you for taking the time to read my blog.

Cowardly Rationalization?

2008-10-12T16:09:00.005-04:00

Roger Kimball does not know what to make of Christopher Buckley's endorsement of Obama:

At the moment, I am feeling glum because Christo has broadcast a public endorsement of Barack Obama.
...
I heard a rumor about it a week or so ago and wondered at first whether it might be one of those winking, tongue-in-cheek gambits satirists sometimes employ to get our attention. “Wow, Christopher Buckley, son of Wm. F. Buckley Jr., Republican speech writer, board member and regular contributor to National Review is supporting Obama! He’s not serious, is he?” And then it would turn out that, no, he wasn’t serious.
But inspecting his public declaration I conclude that he is very serious indeed.

I wrote about Buckley's endorsement of Obama previously, but I just want to add that Christopher Buckley's endorsement was most likely one part cowardice, and one part rationalization.

Christopher Buckley's cowardly endorsement of Obama is a means to avoid peer pressure. Many of Buckley's peers are most likely "intellectual" liberals who have continually mocked John McCain and his supporters since Sarah Palin was selected. Consequently, rather than bear the "shame and stigma" of supporting a candidate who many of his "intellectual" friends mock for having chosen an "imbecile" as a running mate, Christopher Buckley succumbed to this peer pressure and cowardice and endorsed Obama.

Additionally, Christopher Buckley is endorsing Obama as a means to rationalize supporting something that he feels is a foregone conclusion. In his endorsement that he states "[i]f Obama raises taxes and throws up tariff walls and opens the coffers of the DNC to bribe-money from the special interest groups against whom he has (somewhat disingenuously) railed during the campaign trail, then he will almost certainly reap a whirlwind that will make Katrina look like a balmy summer zephyr". Yet he endorsed him nonetheless. He rationalizes this support by saying "having a first-class temperament and a first-class intellect, President Obama will (I pray, secularly) surely understand that traditional left-politics aren’t going to get us out of this pit we’ve dug for ourselves". Hence, Buckley is not endorsing Obama, but is instead endorsing the hope that Obama will govern like McCain (i.e., he is rationalizing his support for the inevitable outcome he dreads).

Killing Zombies

2008-10-12T15:30:00.002-04:00

I should be diligently working to make my blog successful, but I would rather be killing Zombies.

Update: I killed 5,000 zombies today. When you go to work tomorrow and do not see any zombies on the street, you can thank me.

Don't hold your breath

2008-10-12T14:47:00.004-04:00

If the Press truly wanted to be fair and balanced, when it talks about the rage of the Republican party, it should note the rage of the Democratic Party that JammieWearingFool (via Instapundit) and Michelle Malkin do a very good job of documenting.

The press is unlikely to do that because it is biased, and because the McCain campaign is unlikely to push the story the way the Democrats did. If Republicans really want the press to be fair and balanced, they are going to have to demand that McCain push the story.

The Russian Cub

2008-10-12T13:51:00.003-04:00

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack last month made the latest Russian operations above the Arctic and in the Caribbean, dubbed "Stability 2008," sound more like a joke. Sneering at the weakness of Russia's fleet en route to Venezuela, McCormack said, "We'll see if they actually make it there. Somebody told me they had a tugboat accompanying them in case they break down along the way."

I laughed when I first read that, but then it actually filled me with dread. I think there is a quote something along the lines of a weak adversary who thinks he is strong should be feared more than a strong adversary. The strong adversary is most likely rational and predictable and will not risk provoking conflicts it can not win. Conversely, a weak adversary will be rash and impulsive, and through blissful ignorance will provoke conflicts that it can not win. In doing so, the weak adversary will inflict costs that the strong adversary rationally avoided.

Every Man and Nation for himself

2008-10-12T13:21:00.003-04:00

The root cause of the financial crisis is that private entities have come to believe that the inherent risk of their assets is higher than they had previously estimated. An increase in the perceived risk lowers the expected value of the asset. In essence, wealth has been destroyed simply because private entities perceive an increased risk to their assets. The way to solve the crisis is to help private entities lower their perception of the inherent risk of their assets. Unfortunately, chaotic self interest will almost certainly increase the perceived inherent risk of assets:

Iceland's prime minister, Geir Haarde, warned last week that it was now "every country for itself." This smacks of the financial autarchy that characterized defaulters in the financial crisis in Asia in the late 1990s. Similarly, when Argentina defaulted on its debt in 2001-'02, politicians there faced enormous pressure to change the rule of law to benefit domestic property holders over foreigners, and they changed the bankruptcy law to give local debtors the upper hand. In Indonesia and Russia after the crises of 1998, local enterprises and banks took the opportunity of the confusion to grab property, then found ways to ensure that courts sided with them.

Update: This article explains the point I was trying to make above about how value of wealth is lost.

The Iranian War

2008-10-12T13:02:00.002-04:00

Just what the world needs now, a war with Iran:

Some key decision makers in Israel fear that unless they attack Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities in the next few months, while George W Bush is still president, there will not be another period when they can rely on the United States as being anywhere near as supportive in the aftermath of a unilateral attack.

If the Iran is attacked, it is imperative that they are hit in a way that they can not respond, (i.e., via nuclear attack). I doubt anyone has the nerve to kill 70 million Iranians for the sins of a few deranged mullahs. Consequently, Israel and the United States should find a solution that does not involve military action.

Expand your horizons

2008-10-11T15:01:00.001-04:00

Cupios Dissent has an interesting video on an off shore drilling platform.

Mr T has got some nuts for you

2008-10-11T14:22:00.003-04:00

I guess this British snickers ad is a couple months old, but I had never seen it, and I thought it was hilarious.

For those who think this ad is homophobic, I would say that I am a libertarian, and I believe that the same principles that lead me to believe that gays should have the freedom to do what they want with other consenting adults gives me the same freedom to post this video, and find the behavior that it displays as being humorous.

via Allah Pundit

Delisting North Korea

2008-10-11T13:20:00.004-04:00

I know that many conservatives might think this is proof that the Bush Administration is kowtowing to North Korea:

The United States said on Saturday that it is striking North Korea from a terrorism blacklist as Washington worked furiously to salvage a historic nuclear disarmament deal.
...
Angry at Washington's refusal to delist it, Pyongyang in the last few weeks vowed to restart its Yongbyon nuclear reactor that it shut down under a landmark deal in 2007 and has taken tangible steps toward doing so.

I must admit that it does look like kowtowing. However, I think that there is a plausible explanation that does not involve the US kowtowing to North Korea. To understand that explanation, one must understand the American bureaucratic/civil servants culture

For those who are unaware, America has civil service laws that dictate how the President can hire and fire government employees. Additionally, pay raises are mostly proscribed by law. The President has little to no flexibility to hire or fire government employees. Additionally, the President has little ability to reward the most productive government employees with pay raises.

Consequently, the vast majority of civil servants do little to no work. Why should they? They can not be fired for lack productivity, and they are not going to be rewarded for being an extra productive worker. In fact, they will get their pay raise regardless of whether they are a productive employee or not. This creates an American civil servants culture of bureaucratic inertia where very little gets accomplished

Consequently, it is possible that the State Department through bureaucratic inertia was not as diligent in delisting North Korea from the terrorism watch list as it was supposed to do via the agreement. In response, North Korea lit a fire under the State Department's feet to get them moving. North Korea's actions appeared to have the desired result.

I hate John McCain, but please vote for him nonetheless

2008-10-11T12:50:00.006-04:00

In a post earlier today, I expressed disappointment that another blogger was not forcefully advocating the election of John McCain. Seconds after writing that, I read this article, and I thought to myself I hate John McCain, I really hate John McCain.

The Obama campaign is trying to peddle the story that Republicans are stark raving mad lunatics. The press dutifully complies. His supporters try to rally to the defense of the cause. And, how does John McCain respond? I do not know how he responded, but however he responded to it, he has allowed Obama to make it look like John McCain thinks his supporters are stark raving mad lunatics:

Barack Obama acknowledged Saturday that John McCain has asked his supporters to temper their attacks on him.

Thank you John McCain from one of your stark raving mad lunatic supporters (that would be sarcasm in case anybody tries to use this against me in the future)!

Unless somebody starts a viable write in draft someone (Petraeus, Thomas Sowell, Glenn Reynolds, I do not know, etc) movement, I am stuck supporting this man. So, please vote McCain and Republicans in November, it is the last best chance to save the American dream.

Free Speech in Canada

2008-10-11T12:11:00.003-04:00

I am glad that Mark Steyn was found not guilty:

If you have the wherewithal to stand up to these totalitarian bullies, they stampede for the exits. But, if you're just an obscure Alberta pastor or a guy with a widely unread website or a fellow who writes a letter to his local newspaper, they'll destroy your life.

But, I wonder if the cause of free speech might have been better served by him offering no defense to the charges beyond saying I thought I had the free speech right to write what I wrote. It certainly would have saved him some money:

...we spent a ton of money and had a bigshot Queen's Counsel.

I think the outcome would have been the same, but it would have place greater onus on the government of Canada to justify their attempts to stifle Free Speech.

via Hugh Hewitt

Fiddling while Rome burns

2008-10-11T11:11:00.005-04:00

After having advocated that Republicans and conservatives would be better off losing the presidential election, Mike Rappaport is beginning to have second thoughts:

I have been tentatively arguing that it would be better for the nation and the Republican party if Obama were to win. But I should now let readers know that I may be changing my mind on the matter. I am considering voting for McCain. With the financial crisis we are facing, an Obama Presidency combined with a strongly Democratic Congress would be much worse than the situation we were previously facing. Obama could use the emergency to transform the country in a very bad
way. I haven't made up my mind yet.

I am glad that Mike Rappaport has come to a conclusion that I have been trying to voice for the past couple of weeks. Now, I wish he would get off the fence and work to help preserve capitalism in America. I wish he would say I am going to vote for John McCain, and I hope every body who reads this will do the same. Even if he is not sure that he intends to vote for McCain, I wish he would say this. Ultimately, how a single person votes is unlikely to change the outcome of an election. However, by voicing doubts about a candidate, an individual can influence the outcome of an election by helping other people mentally justify their own inaction. For conservatives, the cost of sowing such doubt is too great, for the dream of America that conservatives have been fighting for dies with a Democratic party landslide in November.

via The Volokh Conspiracy

McCain's Economic argument

2008-10-10T20:55:00.002-04:00

Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics does not get it:

If you peruse the conservative blogs or listen to talk radio - you can almost feel their anger. There's plenty of blame to go around, they argue. And of course they're right - both parties are to blame - but it doesn't matter.
The average voter doesn't understand the intricacies of economic policy. Heck, when you think about it, nobody really understands the economy. So, voters often rely on simple yet sensible metrics to make political decisions about the economy. One of them has been more or less operative since the election of 1840: if the economy tanks during a Republican administration, vote Democrat. If it tanks during a Democratic administration, vote Republican. Applying this rule to 2008, we get the following. McCain, because he is of the incumbent party, gets the political harm. Obama, because he is of the out party, gets the political benefit. That's all there is to it.

That is not all there is to it. At the beginning of the crisis, Obama's response to the crisis was it is Bush/Republican's fault. McCain's response was let us not blame anyone and hope this subject goes away. When voters hear those two responses, is it any surprise that the issue played to Obama's benefit?

It is true that McCain has started to go on attack on the issue, but he has done it very poorly, and he still has not made the argument that if you think it is bad now, wait till the Democrats are given complete and total political control, it will only get worse. McCain has an economic argument that will turn this financial crisis to his favor, but he has failed to make it so far.

Incidentally, the people who run the McCain campaign and the Obama campaign have almost certainly study the same history that Jay Cost have, and they have probably all learned the same wrong lesson (i.e., nothing that can be done, so find other areas to engage). Consequently, if history ends up repeating itself, the lesson ends up appearing to be true because no attempted to overcome it.

Finally, if Jay Cost is right, the race is over, and there is nothing that McCain can do to change it fortunes, so if they attack Obama on the Economics issue, they really have not lost anything but the time and effort that they invested. Whereas, if I am right, and they take Jay Cost's advice, they have lost their best chance at winning the election. Simple logic dictates that the McCain campaign should be attacking as hard as it can on the economics issue.

Depression versus a recession

2008-10-10T20:22:00.002-04:00

Greg Mankiw writes:

There is no official designation of depression. Traditionally, milder contractions are called recessions and more severe contractions are called depressions, but there is no official word on which is which.

A recession is an economic downturn caused by a substanial decrease in the expected rate of inflation. A depression is an economic downturn caused by a substantial contraction in the money supply where people's expected value of wealth decreases instantly due to the money multiplier effect going in reverse.

Unless the destruction of wealth can be quickly stopped and reversed, America is heading for a depression.

William Buckley's son endorse Obama

2008-10-10T18:22:00.003-04:00

William Buckley's son has endorsed Obama:

Let me be the latest conservative/libertarian/whatever to leap onto the Barack Obama bandwagon.
...
President Obama will (I pray, secularly) surely understand that traditional left-politics aren’t going to get us out of this pit we’ve dug for ourselves. If he raises taxes and throws up tariff walls and opens the coffers of the DNC to bribe-money from the special interest groups against whom he has (somewhat disingenuously) railed during the campaign trail, then he will almost certainly reap a whirlwind that will make Katrina look like a balmy summer zephyr.

Well, most conservatives will be praying for the same thing if Obama is elected. The difference is that most conservatives are going to vote for the candidate who has spent a career fighting for the policies that Christopher Buckley wants Obama to pursue, while Christopher Buckley is going to vote for the candidate who has been fighting against those policies for his entire career.

Christopher Buckley should take a long look in the mirror before the next time he wishes to opine that it is “'the bleeding obvious'... that Sarah Palin is an embarrassment".

Jump Fido!

2008-10-10T14:01:00.006-04:00

Democrats say "Jump!", and the press jumps here and here:

via Gateway Pundit

Of course, there jumping had nothing to do with them being biased in any way.

Update: More members of the press jump to get their doggy biscuit.

Beyond McCain's control

2008-10-10T13:54:00.002-04:00

Victor Davis Hanson writes:

...the outcome in these last few days may be seem contingent in large part on breaking news beyond the candidates’ control.

Nothing is beyond your control, unless you allow it to be beyond your control. The McCain campaign has not attempted to control how people respond to the financial crisis, and as a result has been controlled by it.

Who is John Galt?

2008-10-10T12:59:00.004-04:00

Who is John Galt? And, where is he? America desperately needs someone who can save capitalism in America.

For those who do not get the John Galt reference, it comes from Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged.

Update: When I originally wrote this post, I apparently copied the wrong link into the "Who is John Galt" question. That link has now been corrected.

Democracy in America

2008-10-10T12:47:00.002-04:00

John McCain said "No one should be corrupting the most precious right we have, that is the right to vote". Unfortunately, Acorn and the Democratic party disagrees with this view.

How is RFK doing?

2008-10-10T11:26:00.002-04:00

I do not know what Matt Lauer's views on Sarah Palin are, but it would not shock me if he thought she was too ignorant to be America's Vice President. Hence, I will gladly laugh at him, when he makes a fool out of himself.

Fraudulent secularism

2008-10-10T01:32:00.002-04:00

John S Wilkins is kind enough to take time out of his pursuit of science to attempt to teach "ignant religious folk" how secularism is really meant to protect their religious beliefs:

I am giving a public talk for the Secular Freethinkers society on Tuesday next (details below the fold) on why secularism does not require the end of religion, and in fact why the religious ought to support it to protect their future standing in society.

I hope he is promoting true secularism and not fraudulent secularism. Many individuals who claim to be promoting secularism are actually promoting a fraudulent form of secularism. Secularism is the belief enshrined in the first amendment that guarantees the American people the freedom to exercise their religion without coercion or interference from the government. As I explain below many people who claim to be promoting secularism are actually promoting government coercion and interference in American citizens' free exercise of their religious beliefs.

We have public schools in America. That means that all citizens must pay for schools through taxes. Hence, some parents are being forced to pay for public schools through taxes, but then told if they want the benefit of public schools they must send their children to schools that specifically attempt to indoctrinate the children with the belief that the parents' religious teachings on creationism, sexual abstinence and gays is wrong. That has to be the single most offensive form of state coercion that exists today in America, and certainly violates the parents' right of free exercise of their religion. Anyone who promotes such a policy based upon secularism is a fraudulent secularist violating the principle behind the first amendment.

It could be easily avoided by allowing school choice. However, most fraudulent secularist fight against school choice. Due to this behavior, it is actually these fraudulent secularist who are using the power of the state to indoctrinate children with the beliefs that the fraudulent secularist promote. The fraudulent secularist are actually the individuals who are violating the founding secularist principles of our nation established in the first amendment.

A half an hour of Obama

2008-10-10T01:00:00.004-04:00

Obama is spending vast amounts of money on his campaign:

Already advertising at record levels, Barack Obama has scheduled a half-hour commercial for prime time on Oct. 29, six days before Election Day.
...
Such a vast purchase of commercial time is a multimillion-dollar expense, but Obama has been spending dramatically on ads, overshadowing rival John McCain and the Republican National Committee.

Some might view this as a sign of political strength. I say as long as he is stuck at 49% in the polls, it is a sign of weakness.

Obama and Ayers

2008-10-09T21:17:00.005-04:00

Ben Smith at the Politico writes:

Obama also lashed McCain for focusing on Ayers on a day of dramatic economic turmoil, calling the issue a "red herring."

The President of the United States is a very powerful position with a great influence over the lives of Americans for the next four years and beyond. The American people can not predict what will happen in the future. They can only guess what qualities that a President will need to be able to do the best job possible. In making these decisions, they are placing a large amount of trust that such individuals will have the judgement to make the best decisions possible.

It is incomprehensible to many Americans how being friends with William Ayers, an unrepentant anti-American terrorist, would be the best decision possible for anyone in power or who seeks to be in power. They are looking for Obama to provide them with an honest answer to the nature of the relationship with William Ayers so that they can understand why Obama felt the relationship was appropriate. If Obama does not want to provide the answer, and instead, continues to call such questions a distraction, the American people will be forced to make judgements about the nature of the relationship without input from Obama.

Those judgements will presumably be very harsh towards Obama. The American people, very well, might conclude that if they can not trust Obama to be smart enough to make sound judgements in who he has professional relationships with, that they should not trust him with the power to write budgets, sign laws into effect and make appointments that will have great influence over their lives for the next four years and beyond.

Update: Mark Halperin at Time magazine poses a question about the relationship to an Obama spokesman in a way that needs to be addressed. Peter Wehner at Commentary wants Mark Halperin's question put directly to Obama.

Steve Sturm (via Instapundit) uses an argument via analogy to make the case that questions about Obama's relationship with William Ayers are a red herring. I disagree with Steve. Steve thinks the dynamic of the race are such that there is nothing McCain can do to win. I disagree. Steve has not taken undecided voters into account. As long as Obama is less than 50% in the polls (which he is), enough undecided voters remain to make McCain President.

As I argued previously, I think the remaining undecided voters will do one of two things: either vote for McCain, or stay home. So, raising questioning about the relationship is about convincing "soft" Republicans that the cost of not voting is too high.

Obama's children should be put on Timeout

2008-10-09T20:17:00.002-04:00

Ace of Spades writes:

Another Close Terrorist Friend of Obama's: A Former PLO Spokeman, when the PLO [was an avowed] terrorist organization.
...
Barack Obama's claim? "His kids go to the same school my kids go to."

Obama should put his children on timeout. They keep getting him into relationships with terrorist and terrorist sympathizers.

What kind of man continually blames his children for his own questionable decisions?

Obama and the Stock market

2008-10-09T18:39:00.004-04:00

Glenn Reynolds links to a post with a graph showing the correlation between the betting odds that Obama will win and the fall of the Stock Market. He correctly points out that correlation is not causation, but he does not elaborate. I presume that he is suspicious of the suggestion that the increase in the expectation that Obama will win is causing the stock market to fall. However, it is possible that the graph is revealing another causal relationship (i.e., the fall in the stock market is increasing the expectation that Obama will win).

On the same topic, James Pethokousis has an article with a title asking is Obama depressing the market. However, his first line in the article calls such a suggestion "an absolute cheap shot".

IMO, the relationship displayed in the graph is the cause of two correlations and two causal effects, which are:

The economy has gone into a tailspin. This creates a correlation between the expectation that Obama will win and the fall in the stock market. Investors in the stock market are selling because they feel the economy is in bad shape, and going to get worse. Voters vote their pocketbook (i.e., if the economy is bad, the incumbent's party is punished in the election) is a known phenomenon. If the past is a guide, Obama benefits from this phenomenon. Hence, the expected value of Obama contracts is increasing.
The fall in the stock market is the most visible indicator of the state of the economy. As the stock market has fallen, the state of the economy becomes apparent to many additional voters, which increases the probability of voters voting their pocketbook. This has a causal effect of further increasing the value of Obama contracts.
Investor's buy based upon how they feel future laws and regulations will affect the market. As the phenomenon of voters voting their pocketbook also increases the probability that Democratic Party will increase their control in Congress, this creates an incentive to sell stocks that will be adversely affected by the Democratic Party control. Any decrease in the stock market due to this effect would be a result of correlation rather than causation (i.e, in regards to the original graph).
If I were an investor, I would much rather have a President who respects free markets, and will try to reduce the cost to production by cutting taxes and regulations, rather than one who will increase the cost of production by enacting new laws and taxes, and who will impose subsidies that benefit non producing members of society. In this sense, if I truly felt that Obama was more likely to win the next election, I would be selling across the board. I suspect that their a quite a few investors who feel the same way. So, I suspect that yes, the rise in the expectation will be the next President is having a small but causal effect on the decrease in the Stock Market.

Cruel? and unusual punishment

2008-10-09T13:48:00.002-04:00

A judge imposed a cruel and unusual punishment on a Urbana college student for playing his rap music too loud:

Andrew Vactor was facing a $150 fine for playing rap music too loudly on his car stereo in July. But a judge offered to reduce that to $35 if Vactor spent 20 hours listening to classical music by the likes of Bach, Beethoven and Chopin.
Vactor, 24, lasted only about 15 minutes, a probation officer said.

If the judge hadn't given the student the choice, I would have said that the punishment is unconstitutional.

Could you last 20 hours of this:

Allegro Moderato by Bach

Moonlight Sonata by Beethoven

Funeral March by Chopin

Beyonce and Jay-Z

2008-10-09T13:35:00.003-04:00

Access Hollywood quotes Beyonce as saying:

What Jay and I have is real. It's not about interviews or getting the right photo op. It's real,

I am impressed with their philosophy regarding their relationship. I wish more celebrities would embrace that attitude. It would be healthier for their relationships as well as for the public's obsession with celebrities.

Drinking beer is patriotic

2008-10-09T13:07:00.005-04:00

David Post at the Volokh conspiracy owes Sarah Palin an apology for writing the following post:

...it is really irresponsible, outrageous, and insulting [for Sarah Palin] to say that it's unpatriotic [to suggest that people pay higher taxes].

Sarah Palin never said that it is unpatriotic. Here is Sarah Palin's comment that has David Post (and Thomas Friedman) upset:

Now you [Biden] said recently that higher taxes or asking for higher taxes or paying higher taxes is patriotic. In the middle class of America which is where Todd and I have been all of our lives, that's not patriotic. Patriotic is saying, government, you know, you're not always the solution. In fact, too often you're the problem so, government, lessen the tax burden and on our families and get out of the way and let the private sector and our families grow and thrive and prosper.

Now as a hypothetical, assume that I say "drinking beer is the patriotic thing to do". If someone responds, "that's not patriotic". Are they calling drinking beer unpatriotic, or are they pointing out that I have a bizarre definition of patriotism? Sarah Palin was right and her detractors owe her an apology.

Crying by Roy Orbinson

2008-10-08T21:36:00.003-04:00

Crying by Roy Orbinson

The Mulholland Drive version

Japanese IQ Test

2008-10-08T21:10:00.000-04:00

Are you smart enough to get a job in Japan?

Cut taxes

2008-10-08T19:25:00.003-04:00

Greg Mankiw writes:

There is broad agreement among economists that what the financial system needs right now is not only an injection of liquidity but also a recapitalization....
The question for the moment is, How can we get capital back into the
financial system?

All economist should hate the payroll tax. Therefore, as a free market solution, economist should advocate aboloshing the payroll tax as a means of getting capital back into the financial system. It would not go directly into the financial system, but it would definetly free up capital for the financial system. It also might have the added benefit of addressing one of the fundamental causes of the crisis (i.e., falling home prices). Additionally, economist should advocate that the government cut income taxes as much as possible (while adding a small consumption tax for those who pay no income tax). Cutting taxes would add capital to the financial system, but many might be oppossed to cutting taxes for the following reasons:

Taxes can not be cut without an act of Congress.
The seriousness of the situation may not allow the time that is need to implement tax cuts.
The lost tax revenue would add to the deficit.
The capital added to the economy would not flow directly to the financial system.

Nonetheless, the payroll tax is one of the most economic inefficient taxes this nation has to bear. If this crisis can be used to get rid of it, economist should jump at the opportunity.

General Petraeus on Iraq

2008-10-08T18:56:00.001-04:00

A speech by General Petraeus on Iraq.

Low brow humor

2008-10-08T18:45:00.001-04:00

Too funny

Selling the Conventions

2008-10-08T17:45:00.003-04:00

Ian Ayers at freakonomics writes:

What if the Democratic and Republican National Committees had decided to sell the broadcast rights to their conventions? What would that have been worth? NBC paid $894 million to get a total of 435 million viewer-days out of the sports in Beijing. At $2 per viewer-day, that suggests that the Democrats could have gotten $180 million for their 90 million viewer-days. Now, a convention has fewer commercial opportunities, especially during the candidate’s acceptance speech, and on the networks it’s only on for a couple of prime-time hours each day; so let’s knock that down to $100 million. Still, that’s a nice sum.

It sounds nice in theory, but it fails to realize that all networks carry the conventions because they feel compelled to as an good act of good citizenship. If the parties start trying to sell their conventions, they are going to have to sell exclusive rights, and the other networks will feel free to counter program. The counter programing with definetly drive down viewership for the conventions and decrease the value of winning the exlusive rights to broadcast the conventions. The extra money that the campaign could make from selling the conventions would probably be worth less than the loss of free media that is available by giving the product away.

News the media refuses to provide

2008-10-08T17:35:00.001-04:00

via Youtube and Cupious Dissent

Obama's impressive team

2008-10-08T16:07:00.005-04:00

Danny Shays quotes David Brooks as saying:

...although he found Obama to be "a very mediocre senator," he was is surrounded by what Brooks called "by far the most impressive people in the Democratic party." "He's phenomenally good at surrounding himself with a team," Brooks said. "I disagree with them on most issues, but I am given a lot of comfort by the fact that the people he's chosen are exactly the people I think most of us would want to choose if we were in his shoes. So again, I have doubts about him just because he was such a mediocre senator, but his capacity to pick staff is impressive."

Why would any conservative be impressed by this? As an analogy, if you wanted to, you could assemble the 2008 Olympic Redeem Team as your team, but you shouldn't expect to win the MLB World Series with that team. Similarly, why would David Brooks be impressed with Obama's ability to assemble a team that he feels is intellectual, but ideologically wrong on issue after issue? If his team was so impressive, shouldn't David Brooks feel that they are ideologically right on issue after issue? The two following possibilities exist:

Obama's team is ideologically right, and David Brooks lacks the intellectual insight to understand why his ideological thinking is flawed.
David Brooks is ideologically right, and Obama's team lacks the intellectual insight to understand why their ideological thinking is flawed.

If David Brooks is ideologically right, why is he impressed with the Obama's team inability to understand the flaws in their ideological thinking? I presume that David Brooks is convinced that he is ideologically right, so there is no point in asking the converse. Furthermore, why is David Brooks impressed rather than horrified by Obama's ability to assemble such an impressive staff? Isn't it logical to assume that Obama's impressive staff means that Obama is going to be spectacularly successful at advancing "flawed" ideological ideas and policies? Why would any conservative be comforted by that thought?

Until David Brooks can offer a coherent response to explain his fondness for the team Obama in spite of the ideological threat they pose, I am going to view David Brooks and not Sarah Palin as the "fatal cancer to the Republican party".

Obama's Socialism

2008-10-08T15:49:00.003-04:00

Thomas Lifon at the American Thinker writes:

The New Party was a radical left organization [with membership, including Barack Obama], established in 1992, to amalgamate far left groups and push the United States into socialism by forcing the Democratic Party to the left.

The irony is that regardless of what Obama's intent was regarding socialism during his political career, he will almost certainly lead a Democratic party that pushes socialism on the American people in response to the financial crisis.

via Ace of Spades

For the greater good of Republicanism

2008-10-08T13:57:00.003-04:00

Steve Kornacki writes:

After eight years of George W. Bush, Republicans need to decide who they are and what they stand for. Nothing would jump-start that discussion more effectively than a drubbing next month.

That may be the case, but the biggest loser in such a scenario would be the American people as the Democratic party would have unchecked ability to radically alter America's capitalist system. I prefer preserving America's wealth and capitalist system to sacrificing it for the greater good of the Republican party.

The End of Prosperity

2008-10-08T13:14:00.002-04:00

In an article at The American Spectator, Peter Ferrara quotes the authors of the book The End of Prosperity as saying:

[W]e are now witnessing nearly all of the economic policy dials that were once turned toward growth being twisted back towards recession. [O]ur politicians in both parties, but especially the liberal Democrats, are getting everything wrong -- tax policy, regulatory policy, monetary policy, spending policy, trade policy. We call this the assault on growth. The political class seems to be almost intentionally steering the United States economy into the abyss -- and, to borrow a phrase from P.J. O'Rourke, the American electorate, alas, seems ready and willing to hand them the keys and the bottle of whiskey to do it.

I hope every Republican politician reads at least this article and even maybe the book, and is able to adopt the arguments. If not, I fear Peter Ferrera's closing thoughts may prove to be prophetic:

We know how to create an economic boom, and we know what policies will lead to economic disaster. The Left denies these obvious truths only because it craves more government power. If America does not wake up to what is happening, there will be much suffering through a long dark night.

Depression fears

2008-10-08T12:43:00.003-04:00

Lee Ohanian gets it, but has not yet quited figured out the importance of what it means:

Will we duck a depression? We will if the principles of economic growth -- increasing the incentives to work and save, promoting competition, and fostering economic openness -- are maintained. This is the most important lesson we learned, the hard way, from the 1930s.

I agree with that, but the problem is he said this earlier in his article:

...there is a real danger that even a moderate recession, along with the current perception of an economic crisis, would lead to calls from various quarters for bad economic policies -- policies that tend to either pander to special-interest groups, benefiting relatively few at the expense of many, or raising taxes, particularly on the nation's most productive citizens, many of whom create jobs through their own enterprises.

Well, the Democratic Party is on the verge of a possible electoral landslide, and they are the party that is more likely to "pander to special-interest groups, benefiting relatively few at the expense of many, or raising taxes, particularly on the nation's most productive citizens, many of whom create jobs through their own enterprises". Lee Ohanian has yet to put these facts together to see how perilously close we are to the next depression.

McCain and Economics

2008-10-08T12:29:00.004-04:00

McCain did an awful job last night making his economic case. Republicans are offering people wealth. Democrats are threatening to take away people's wealth. How hard is it to make that argument. All Republicans and free market advocates need to find some one who can make that argument and can make it in a hurry. Shout it from every mountain top. The wealth of our nation is at risk like it has never been before. Why aren't Republicans and free market advocates engaged in self interested fight for economic survival?

The State of the Race

2008-10-08T11:50:00.003-04:00

Paul Mirengoff on last night's debate:

A win on the visuals and at least a draw on substance (if that’s a fair assessment) is a win for Obama at this point. So tonight he moves a little closer to the presidency.

That is pretty much the conventional wisdom.

However, as a McCain supporter, I am foolishly optimistic that conventional wisdom is wrong. My optimism comes from the fact that even though Obama has the lead in the polls, he is stuck at just below 50% (it is true that 2 polls have Obama at 51%, Gallup and Rasmussen, but that is still within the margin of error). This means that hopefully there are still enough undecideds left to put McCain over the top.

Conventional wisdom holds that is unlikely that all of those undecideds will vote for McCain. Hence, conventional wisdom holds Obama won last night's debate through attrition. However, I think conventional wisdom is wrong is because they misunderstand who the remaining undecideds are. Almost all of the remaining undecideds are certainly former Bush supporters.

Think of it this way, Obama's standing in the polls is a reflection of the fact that he has the commitment of the half the population who voted for Kerry and Gore. The reason that he can not get above the 50% is because he can not convince former Bush supporters to vote for him. I think that it is unlikely that he will be able to convince them to vote for him, but he can win the election, by convincing enough of them to stay home and not vote on election day. Here is a small anecdotal piece of evidence that supports my belief:

...when Hart stepped back and focused in particular on the four voters who said their vote could still be won by McCain or Obama, it was telling that all four had supported President Bush in 2000 and 2004. Not a single Kerry or Gore voter was wavering over Obama.

When viewed in that light, Obama's goal last night was to make these voters feel that staying home and not voting is preferable to voting for McCain. McCain's goal was to convince them that voting for him is preferable to staying home. McCain could have done more, but I believe he marginally improved his standing with last night's debate.

Spread the truth

2008-10-07T19:55:00.001-04:00

Every American needs to know the truth about our economic crisis. I stole this video from Ace of Spades (I hope he approves and understands).

Moral Humility

2008-10-07T19:10:00.003-04:00

A speech by Jonathan Haidt

Silver Springs (rough outtake) by Fleetwood Mac

2008-10-07T19:08:00.001-04:00

Pulled from You Tube

Look at your 401K plan

2008-10-07T13:37:00.007-04:00

Megan McArdle thinks that you should not look at your 401K plan:

How to handle the crisis in your 401K. Don't look. Seriously, don't look.

I respectively disagree. I think you should look. When you look, ask yourself the following questions:

How did this happen?
What can be done to prevent your 401K from losing anymore value and help it regain value as quickly as possible?
What can be done to prevent it from happening in the future?

How did this happen? Ever since the last depression, the Democratic party has believed that interventions into the free market produce positive gains for society. The Republican party has believed that the Democratic party was wrong, but has not forcefully fought for its own political philosophy. The Republican party accepted political defeat and compromise rather than fighting for victory because they rationalized that society could bear the small costs that defeat and compromise entailed.

However, the crisis shows that both parties were wrong. Past minor interventions into the free market has produced a major cost and risk to the wealth of society and its citizens. Additionally, the government is currently limited in its ability to respond to this crisis because it allowed much of its wealth to be inefficiently spent by lavishly subsidizing non productive members of society.

What can be done to prevent your 401K from losing anymore value and help it regain value as quickly as possible? In the next election, vote for politicians who advocate a free market governing philosophy. Hope that they adhere to the governing philosophy of purging inefficient regulations and cutting taxes and spending.

What can be done to prevent it from happening in the future? Continue to support politicians and political parties that advocate a free market governing philosophy. Additionally, become immune to those who would use your compassion against you. Are these individuals showing compassion towards you by arguing that you should willingly forsake your own wealth for the benefit of those who in many cases do not need the assistance of the government?

Finally, Megan McArdle says

...selling into a massive liquidity crisis is a pretty bad idea. Selling in a panic because your assets just dropped 30% is almost certainly a bad idea.

That is only a good suggestion if the market has already hit the bottom, or is very near the bottom. I am not certain how close we are to the bottom, but I am convinced that if the Democrats gain more political control, and do not get religion on free markets, the market can almost certainly go lower.

Preventing the next depression

2008-10-07T12:56:00.003-04:00

Hugh Hewitt makes the case that Obama is the Herbert Hoover of 2009. Republicans need to be making this case forcefully. It is America's last best chance to prevent the wide scale destruction of wealth that a Democratic control of all branches of government would cause.

If you have not read them, here are additional posts where I lay out the economic arguments that Republicans should be making:

http://ofinterest2.blogspot.com/2008/10/democratic-economic-incompetence.html
http://ofinterest2.blogspot.com/2008/10/post-bailout-politics.html
http://ofinterest2.blogspot.com/2008/09/death-of-capitalism.html
http://ofinterest2.blogspot.com/2008/09/americas-future.html
http://ofinterest2.blogspot.com/2008/09/financial-crisis-resolved.html

Bill Ayers' Radical Agenda

2008-10-07T12:09:00.003-04:00

Scott Johnson at Power Line quotes Sol Stern as saying:

For the first time in his life, [William] Ayers seems to be observing Democratic Party discipline and won’t be talking until after November 4.

Maybe that is because for the first time in his life, William Ayers really believes the Democratic party has embraced his radical agenda.

A mugging with a happy ending

2008-10-07T00:31:00.002-04:00

A wonderful story. Click the listen button at the link to hear the story in his own words.

Third World versus First World

2008-10-06T22:32:00.003-04:00

Below is an interesting video challenging fundamental assumptions about poverty, world health and economic growth.

Pulled from You Tube

The truth will set you free

2008-10-06T21:38:00.004-04:00

Ace of Spades writes:

Jay Cost, by the way, disagrees with me and thinks that McCain might as well "pee into the wind" as attempt to deflect blame from Republicans when it comes to a banking crisis. He suggests just hitting Obama on Ayers and Wright.
I say: Um, okay, can we not try all three?

Ace is right and Jay Cost is wrong. If Republicans act like they are to blame, the American people will assume that they are to blame. Republicans must argue forcefully for the truth (i.e., Democrats caused this fiasco).

Update: More than this election is at stake. If Republicans cede the economic argument to the Democrats, for the next 20 to 30 years, George W Bush will be used against Republican candidates for President the way Herbert Hoover was used. The only way to prevent this, is tell the truth and hope the American people are smart enough to see the truth.

Jackie Wilson Said by Van Morrison

2008-10-06T21:25:00.003-04:00

Pulled from You Tube

Democratic Economic Incompetence

2008-10-06T20:56:00.004-04:00

Glenn Johnson of the AP quotes Barney Frank as saying:

Republican criticism of Democrats over the nation's housing crisis is a veiled attack on the poor that's racially motivated...

Republicans should respond that:

They are not attacking the poor or minorities.
Poor and minorities are just as much a victim of Democratic incompetence as all Americans are.
Democrats attempted to further the "interests of the poor and minorities" at the expense of business.
Those attempts produced nothing for the poor or minorities, but has created a dire financial crisis for America.
If the American people choose to give more political control to the Democratic party, the financial crisis will only get worse.
The choice is America's to make, but it can only make an informed choice if Republicans honestly speak about the causes (The Democratic Party's bureaucratic socialist incompetent ideology) of the crisis.

via Power Line

The Crash was foretold in June

2008-10-06T19:57:00.003-04:00

I am guessing that quite a few investors wish they had read Melissa Lafsky's blog in June:

You may recall that nerves were jangled this summer over the appearance of a recent Hindenburg Omen—the mathematical formula that measures the probability of a stock market crash, and has reportedly predicted every crash since 1985.

An Inconvenient Truth

2008-10-06T18:12:00.002-04:00

Global Warming is a myth:

Since just January 2007, the world has cooled so much that ALL the global warming over the past three decades has disappeared! This is confirmed by a plot of actual global average temperatures from the best available source, weather satellite data that shows there has been NO net global warming since the satellites were first launched in 1979.

Information that you are unlikely to get from the mainstream media.

McCain's path the victory

2008-10-06T18:01:00.003-04:00

McCain needs to commit to making this argument and making sure as many people in America as possible here it. America's economic future is better served by electing McCain as opposed to Obama.

via Power Line

Friends of Obama and Ayers say they were friends

2008-10-06T13:27:00.002-04:00

Contrary to what the press wants people to believe about the nature of Obama and Ayers relationship:

...Palin's description of the Obama-Ayers relationship... were criticized as exaggerated....

Evidence does exist which does show they were friends. As Ben Smith reported in February:

Dr. Young described Obama and Ayers as “friends,”....

At the end of the Ben Smith post, additional information is provided that shows the press and the Obama campaign are not being honest about the Obama-Ayers relationship:

Maria Warren, described [the 1995 meeting at Ayers house] as an introduction to Hyde Park liberals of the handpicked successor to Palmer, a well-regarded figure on the left. “When I first met Barack Obama, he was giving a standard, innocuous little talk in the living room of those two legends-in-their-own-minds, Bill Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn,” Warren wrote on her blog in 2005. “They were launching him — introducing him to the Hyde Park community as the best thing since sliced bread.”

More information on Obama's friend Dr Quentin Young:

Dr. Quentin Young had been accused of involvement and membership in the Communist Party, and he refused to answer as well when he was called before a committee to explain his financial support for radicals who were behind the riots in Chicago at the Democratic National Convention back in 1968.

Did Bill Ayers ghost write Obams's first book?

2008-10-06T12:32:00.005-04:00

Did Bill Ayers ghost write Dreams of My Father for Barack Obama? If so, it would disprove the claim that they were not that close:

...Palin toned down her description of the Obama-Ayers relationship after her weekend remarks were criticized as exaggerated....